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Age and Ageing

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Age and Ageing's content profile, based on 27 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Decision-making in patients with ALS: experiences and implications for decision support

Nagase, M.; Hino, K.; Sakamoto, A.; Seo, M.

2026-04-24 nursing 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351518 medRxiv
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Patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) face critical decisions regarding life-sustaining treatments, such as invasive mechanical ventilation and percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy. Advance care planning and shared decision-making are standard supportive frameworks but they often fail to account for structural pressures like progressive decline, shifting patient values, and fear of becoming a burden that may influence decision-making. This study explores how patients with ALS interpret ventilator and care options amid progressive physical decline, thereby reconsidering approaches to decision support. Using a qualitative descriptive design, the researcher (a nurse/sociologist) conducted 2-3 hour home interviews with five purposively sampled patients with ALS. Data, including eye-tracking-aided responses, were analysed via Sandelowskis framework. Rigour was ensured through team-based triangulation, independent coding by two researchers, and a reflexive audit trail. Subjective narratives were prioritised without medical record cross-referencing to capture patients experiences. Four categories emerged: (1) Rewriting clinical prognosis into a narrative of exploration via peer models, where meeting active ventilator users transformed future perceptions; (2) The conflict between securing care infrastructure and the burden on family, which greatly influenced the will to survive; (3) Existential fluctuation, where patients intentions shifted with daily fulfilment and family events; and (4) Governance of the body via pre-emptive technology use and training carers as physical extensions. Findings showed decision-making was a multi-layered process redefining lifes meaning within social resources. This necessitate shifting from independent to relational autonomy, where agency relies on care infrastructure, not physical ability. Treatment choice is a dynamic exploration requiring narrative companions to support existential fluctuations. Professionals must coordinate environments to reduce patient indebtedness. Limitations include the small, resource-advantaged sample (N = 5) and reliance on subjective narratives without medical record verification. Living with ALS means governing a new self through relational support and continuous dialogue.

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Development and Evaluation of iSupport-Malaysia: A Multimedia Web-Based Psychoeducational Intervention for Dementia Caregivers

Loh, K. J.; Lee, W. L.; Ng, A. L. O.; Chung, F. F. L.; Renganathan, E.

2026-04-21 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.04.14.26350743 medRxiv
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BackgroundCaring for people with dementia can impose a considerable psychological burden on caregivers, yet access to caregiver support in Malaysia remains limited. The World Health Organizations iSupport for Dementia program provides dementia education via textual, e-learning format. However, a culturally adapted Malaysian version has not been available. ObjectiveThis study aimed to develop and gather user feedback on a culturally adapted, multimedia version of iSupport tailored for Malaysia (iSupport-Malaysia). MethodsGuided by a four-phase cultural adaptation framework, the generic iSupport content was translated into Bahasa Malaysia, adapted to local customs, and transformed into multimedia lessons on an e-learning platform. A mixed-methods design was used to explore user perceptions and evaluate usability through four homogeneous focus group discussions and 15 individual usability test sessions with informal caregivers (FG: n=9; UT: n=9) and healthcare professionals (FG: n=11; UT: n=6). Focus groups examined aesthetics, ease of use, clarity, cultural relevance, comprehensiveness, and satisfaction. Usability testing involved Think Aloud tasks, post-test questionnaires, and brief interviews. Qualitative data was analysed thematically, and descriptive statistics summarised usability performance. ResultsiSupport-Malaysia demonstrated good usability (M=74.3{+/-}18.0), with most tasks completed without assistance. Strengths included interactive learning activities, peer discussion features, and flexible self-paced learning. Content was viewed as culturally appropriate, credible, and useful. Suggested improvements included enhancing visual aesthetics, shortening videos, refining quizzes, and increasing practical relevance. ConclusionUser insights indicate that iSupport-Malaysia is usable and culturally appropriate. These findings will inform refinement of the platform prior to the pilot feasibility study and provide recommendations for future multimedia-based caregiver interventions.

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Most Instability Phases Resolve: Empirical Evidence for Trajectory Plasticity in Multimorbidity Care from Longitudinal Relational Monitoring

Martin, C. M.; henderson, i.; Campbell, D.; Stockman, K.

2026-04-24 health informatics 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351537 medRxiv
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Background: The instability-plasticity framework proposes that multimorbidity trajectories periodically enter instability phases that are vulnerable to escalation but also potentially modifiable through relational intervention. Whether such phases commonly resolve without acute care, or predominantly progress to hospitalisation, has not been quantified at scale. Objective: To quantify instability window outcomes across a longitudinal monitoring cohort; to test whether the characteristics distinguishing admitted from resolved windows reflect within-patient trajectory dynamics or between-patient severity; and to characterise which patient-reported and operator-rated signals reliably precede admission, using both a curated pilot sub-cohort and the full monitoring cohort with an explicit cross-cohort comparison. Methods: Two complementary analyses were conducted on data from the MonashWatch Patient Journey Record (PaJR) relational telehealth system. Instability windows were identified algorithmically (>=2 consecutive calls with Total_Alerts >=3) across the full longitudinal dataset (16,383 calls, 244 patients, 2.5 years) and classified by linkage to ED and hospital admission data. Window characteristics were compared at window, patient, and paired within-patient levels. Pre-admission signal cascades were analysed in two configurations: a curated pilot sub-cohort (64 patients, 280 calls, +/-10-day window, 103 admissions, December 2016-September 2017) and the full monitoring cohort (175 patients, 1,180 pre-admission calls, +/-14-day window, December 2016-July 2019). A three-way cross-cohort comparison decomposed differences between the two configurations into pipeline and population effects. Results: 621 instability windows were identified across 157 patients (64% of the monitored cohort). 67.3% resolved without hospital admission or ED attendance, a rate stable across alert thresholds 1-5. In paired within-patient analysis (n = 70), duration in days (p = 0.002) and multi-domain breadth (p < 0.001) distinguished admitted from resolved windows; alert intensity did not. In the pilot sub-cohort, patient-reported illness prognosis (Q21) was the dominant pre-admission signal (GEE beta = +0.058, AUC = 0.647, p-BH = 0.018). This finding did not replicate in the full cohort: Q21 was non-significant (GEE beta = -0.008, p = 0.154, AUC = 0.507). Cross-cohort analysis identified selective curation of the pilot sub-cohort as the primary explanation. In the full cohort, six signals escalated significantly before admission after Benjamini-Hochberg correction: total alerts, health impairment (Q26), red alerts, self-rated health (Q3), patient concerns (Q1), and operator concern (Q34). Health impairment achieved the highest individual AUC (0.605) and showed the longest pre-admission lead. No individual signal exceeded AUC 0.61. Conclusions: Two thirds of instability phases resolve without hospitalisation, providing direct empirical support for trajectory plasticity as a clinically frequent phenomenon. Within the same patient, persistence - in duration and in the consistency of high-severity multi-domain flagging across calls - distinguishes trajectories that tip into admission from those that resolve. The Q21 signal reversal between cohorts illustrates how selective curation can produce compelling but non-replicable findings in monitoring research. In the full population, objective alert signals and operator judgement, rather than patient illness prognosis, carry the pre-admission signal

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Prediabetes and glycemic transitions as determinants of frailty and functional decline in adults aged 50 years and older: A longitudinal analysis from five multinational aging cohorts

Malagon-Liceaga, A.; Basile-Alvarez, M. R.; Fermin-Martinez, C. A.; Ramirez-Rivera, D. L.; Perezalonso Espinosa, J.; Diaz-Sanchez, J. P.; Garcia-Gonzalez, S. B.; Carrillo-Herrera, K. B.; Cabrera-Quintana, L. A.; Antonio-Villa, N. E.; Gomes-Goncalves, N.; Garcia-Pena, C.; Bello-Chavolla, O. Y.

2026-04-24 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351540 medRxiv
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Background: Prediabetes is highly prevalent in older adults and is characterized by heterogeneous clinical trajectories, including regression to normoglycemia and progression to diabetes. While prediabetes has been associated with impaired physical function and frailty, the longitudinal impact of both a single diagnosis and dynamic glycemic transitions on functional outcomes remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate associations between baseline prediabetes and glycemic transitions over time with trajectories of functional capacity and frailty in older adults. Methods: We conducted a pooled analysis of harmonized data from five nationally representative longitudinal aging cohorts (MHAS, HRS, CHARLS, ELSA, CRELES) within the Gateway to Global Aging Data, including adults aged [&ge;]50 years with [&ge;]1 HbA1c measurements. Prediabetes was defined per ADA criteria (HbA1c 5.7-6.4%). Functional outcomes included activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental ADL (IADL), and frailty assessed using Fried phenotype, FRAIL scale, and a deficit-accumulation Frailty Index (FI). Mixed-effects Poisson models estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for baseline prediabetes, while generalized estimating equations assessed time-varying glycemic status and transition trajectories. Models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and time-varying covariates, with sensitivity analyses including BMI, smoking, and alcohol intake. Findings: Among 18,571 participants (median follow-up 13.6 years), baseline prediabetes was associated with increased progression of functional deficits and frailty compared with normoglycemia, including higher FI values and accelerated FI progression. Prediabetes was associated with higher incidence of ADL, IADL, and multimorbidity deficits from early follow-up, although time-dependent changes in incidence rates were not significant. In time-varying analyses (n=7,840), both prediabetes and diabetes were associated with higher incidence of functional deficits compared with normoglycemia, with diabetes showing the strongest effects across all outcomes. Diabetes was associated with greater FI burden and accelerated progression, whereas prediabetes showed a smaller increase, with attenuation over time. Among individuals with baseline prediabetes, regression to normoglycemia occurred in 20.8% and was associated with increased incidence of ADL and frailty deficits. In contrast, progression to diabetes occurred in 24.3%, and was associated with lower risk of incident ADL and Fried frailty deficits compared to stable prediabetes. Interpretation: Prediabetes is associated with increased risk of functional decline, frailty, and deficit accumulation in older adults, independent of progression to diabetes. Regression to normoglycemia was associated with higher risk of functional deterioration. These findings suggest that prediabetes reflects a state of metabolic vulnerability linked to biological aging rather than solely a precursor to diabetes and highlights a need to reframe its clinical significance in older populations. Funding: This research was supported by Instituto Nacional de Geriatria in Mexico. Keywords: Prediabetes; Glycemic transitions; Frailty; Functional decline; Aging; Multimorbidity

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Educational Inequalities in Well-Being in Later Life in Germany: The Role of Health Behaviours and Health Literacy

Franzese, F.; Bergmann, M.; Burzynska, A.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351388 medRxiv
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Socioeconomic inequalities in health and well-being are a major public health concern, particularly in ageing populations. Education is a key determinant shaping multiple aspects of health outcomes. We used cross-sectional data from wave 9 of the German sample (n=4,148) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to test whether formal education is associated with well-being in later adulthood, with health literacy, self-rated health, and preventive health behaviours as possible mediators. Our results showed that education was positively associated with greater well-being, but only via indirect pathways. Specifically, self-rated health, health literacy, and fruit and vegetable consumption mediated the relationship between education and well-being accounting for 54.7, 24.7, and 12.6 percent of the total effect, respectively. In addition, there were significant positive correlations between education and health literacy, as well as high-intensity physical activity, daily fruit and vegetable consumption, more preventive health check-ups, and less smoking. In contrast, alcohol consumption was more common among those with higher levels of education. All health behaviours and health literacy were correlated directly or indirectly (i.e., mediated by health) with well-being. These findings highlight the importance of examining indirect pathways linking education to well-being in later life. Interventions aimed at improving health literacy and promoting healthy behaviours may help reduce educational inequalities in quality of life among older adults.

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Menopausal hormone therapy at age 45 to 60 years old, future dementia or cognitive decline: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Law, S. Y. R.; Mukadam, N.; Pourhadi, N.; Chaudry, A.; Shiakalli, A.; Rai, U.; Livingston, G.

2026-04-22 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351058 medRxiv
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ObjectiveTo examine whether menopausal women who initiate systemic menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) around menopause (45-60 years old) have a different risk of developing dementia than those not taking MHT. DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and longitudinal observational studies. Risk of bias was assessed using ROB-2 and ROBINS I-V2. Data sourcesMEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library to 27 March 2026. Eligibility criteria for selecting studiesStudies which measured dementia or cognitive decline in women who initiated systemic MHT between ages 45-60 or within 5 years of menopause, compared with placebo or no MHT. Authors contacted for additional details if needed. Main outcome measuresDementia, Alzheimers disease (AD), cognitive decline. Results10 studies totalling 213,678 participants (189,525 in studies with the primary population). There was no significant increased risk in women with a uterus for all cause dementia (pooled hazard ratio (HR): 1.12; 95% CI 0.91-1.31, N=78,613, I2 = 96.9%), but increased AD risk (HR: 1.14; 95% CI 1.02, 1.29, N=134,865, I2 = 35.6%). Results were similar in sensitivity analyses including women with or without a uterus. Results for cognitive decline were variable. ConclusionsMHT initiated around the age of menopause should not be prescribed for cognition or dementia prevention. It is not protective against dementia and may increase risk slightly. The magnitude of risk was similar in AD and dementia, but the latter with larger confidence intervals. Studies which followed up individuals rather than on health records lost people to follow up. This may account for difference in cognitive decline outcomes between studies, as people with cognitive impairment and dementia are more likely not to attend. MHT prescribing should balance benefits against risks, including evidence of a small increased dementia risk. There are few high-quality studies, so further research would inform recommendations. Systematic review registration Prospero CRD420251010663 What is already known on this topic?O_LIMenopausal hormone therapy (MHT) is effective for alleviating vasomotor symptoms. Contemporary guidelines recommend treatment should be initiated for such symptoms under age 60 and or within 10 years of menopause onset. C_LIO_LIA large randomised trial on the topic found increased risk of dementia in women initiating MHT after the age of 65. C_LIO_LIIt is unknown whether initiating MHT around the age of menopause impacts the risk of dementia or cognitive decline. C_LI What this study addsO_LIThere was no evidence that taking MHT around the time of menopause decreases the risk of dementia or cognitive impairment. C_LIO_LIThey should not be prescribed for these indications. C_LIO_LIWe were able to find more studies which examine this question by contacting authors for additional data. C_LIO_LIInitiating MHT in women with a uterus around the age of menopause increased the risk of Alzheimers disease slightly, by over 10%, and there is a similar but not significant effect in the fewer studies of all cause dementia. Women with or without a uterus show similar results. C_LIO_LIWe found no significant difference shown in cognitive decline, possibly due to loss to follow up. This may be because most studies of cognitive decline follow up C_LI

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T lymphocyte regulatory cytokines predict frailty in older adults

Akie, T. E.; Loew, E.; Huang, Z.; Neff, H. A.; Michaels, O. P.; Haran, J. P.

2026-04-20 immunology 10.64898/2026.04.16.716397 medRxiv
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Frailty is a multi-system syndrome causing increased susceptibility to health insults in older adults. Immune system dysregulation and inflammaging have emerged as mechanisms that may affect multiple organ systems in the frailty syndrome. This present study seeks to define the immune state in community-dwelling adults suffering from frailty. We evaluated a subgroup of 169 individuals enrolled in the Gut-brain Alzheimers disease Inflammation and Neurocognitive Study (GAINS). Participants in the GAINS study were scored for frailty using the Clinical Frail Scale. A panel of 27 inflammatory cytokines was analyzed from the serum of each participant. Frailty was present in 33 (19.5%) of the cohort, and was correlated with age, malnutrition, and cognitive assessments. Statistical analysis adjusting for clinical covariates revealed higher serum levels of IL-2, IL-10, and IL-17 in frail patients. Using machine learning classification, we developed a predictive model of frailty with strong discriminative performance (AUC 0.78). Individual element analysis via Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) revealed that inflammatory markers had the greatest influence on the model, and IL-7 was the single most important element in the prediction of frailty. Together, our data demonstrate a novel pattern in which T-cell regulatory inflammatory molecules as mediators of frailty, implicating cellular immunity as a potential mechanism of dysfunctional aging.

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Therapist effects in real-world rehabilitation outcomes: a cohort study of the nationwide GLA:D osteoarthritis management program in Denmark

Obasohan, P. E.; Palmer, J.; Alderson, D.; Yu, D.; Gronne, D. T.; Roos, E. M.; Skou, S. T.; Peat, G. M.

2026-04-21 rehabilitation medicine and physical therapy 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351120 medRxiv
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ObjectiveUnlike several other fields of healthcare, little is known about the size of therapist effects on patient outcomes following rehabilitation for musculoskeletal conditions. We aimed to estimate the proportion of variance in patient outcomes from a structured rehabilitation program explained by therapist effects. MethodsFor our observational cohort study we accessed data from the national multicentre Good Life with osteoArthritis in Denmark (GLA:D) osteoarthritis management program. Analyses included 23,021 consecutive eligible adults with hip or knee osteoarthritis (mean (SD) age 65.0 (9.8) years, 71% female) treated by 657 therapists between October 2014 and February 2019. The primary outcome was [&ge;]30% reduction in pain intensity on 0-100 VAS at 3 months. Therapist effects were estimated as the variance partition coefficient (intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC)) from two-level random intercept logistic regression models before and after adjusting for patient-level case-mix factors and therapist-level characteristics (number of patients treated, days since therapist certification). Analyses were repeated for a range of secondary outcomes using multiply imputed data and complete-case analysis. Results52% of patients reported a [&ge;]30% reduction in pain intensity on 0-100 VAS at 3 months. In the null model the ICC was 0.007 (95%CI: 0.005, 0.009), which changed little after adjusting for patient- and therapist-level covariates. Upper confidence limits for ICC estimates across all secondary outcomes in multiply imputed and complete case analyses were less than 0.03. ConclusionsIn a nationally implemented osteoarthritis management program delivered by trained healthcare professionals, therapist effects made a minimal contribution to variation in patient outcomes. KEY MESSAGESO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABS Therapist effects - defined as the effect of a given therapist on patient outcomes as compared to another therapist - have been observed in several fields of healthcare and have important consequences for selection, training, and service improvement. In musculoskeletal rehabilitation five previous studies suggest that 1-12% of variation in patient-reported outcomes may be attributable to therapist effects, but these estimates were based on relatively small datasets resulting in substantial uncertainty. What this study addsOur cohort study analysed registry data from 2014-2019 on 23,021 patients and 647 trained therapists from the nationally implemented GLA:D structured osteoarthritis management program in Denmark. We found that therapist effects accounted for less than 3% of total variation in patient-reported pain and quality of life outcomes 3 months after beginning the program How this study might affect research, practice, or policyOur findings suggest that contextual factors that relate to therapist effects - therapist characteristics or therapist-patient interaction and alliance - make a minimal contribution to variation in patient outcomes from this structured, group-based rehabilitation intervention. Any contextual effects must be attributable to alternative sources, e.g. patient expectations, intervention setting.

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Retrospective analysis of clinical and environmental genotyping reveals persistence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the water system of a large tertiary children's hospital in England

Sheth, E.; Case, L.; Shaw, F.; Dwyer, N.; Poland, J.; Wan, Y.; Larru, B.

2026-04-24 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351604 medRxiv
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Background Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a major cause of healthcare-associated infections in paediatric settings, where its persistence in moist environments such as hospital water and wastewater systems poses a particular risk to neonates and immunocompromised children. Aim The aim of this study was to showcase the long-term survival and transmission of P. aeruginosa in a large tertiary children's hospital in England which is crucial to develop strategies for water-safe care. Methods Environmental P. aeruginosa isolates were collected from taps, sinks, showers, and baths in augmented care areas of a 330-bed tertiary children's hospital built to NHS water-safety standards. Clinical isolates were classified as invasive (blood, cerebrospinal fluid, and bronchoalveolar lavage) or non-invasive (respiratory, urine, ear, abdominal, and rectal surveillance). Variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) profiles and metadata were extracted from PDF reports, de-identified, deduplicated, and curated using Python and R. Findings This retrospective study analysed nine-locus VNTR profiles of 457 P. aeruginosa isolates submitted to the UK Health Security Agency from a large tertiary children's hospital, identifying 56 isolate clusters (each with [&ge;]2 isolates), of which 19 (34%) contained at least one invasive isolate. The most persistent cluster (Cluster 1, n=20) spanned from July 2016 to September 2024, containing environmental and clinical (invasive and non-invasive) isolates. Conclusion These findings demonstrate long-term persistence of certain genotypes and temporal overlap between environmental and clinical isolates, highlighting the difficulty in detecting and eradicating P. aeruginosa in hospital water and wastewater systems and reinforcing the need for continuous rigorous water system controls.

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Synuclein and dopamine transporter biomarkers among phenoconverters to parkinsonian disorders

Simonet, C.; Yin, J.; Chahine, L. M.; Weintraub, D.; Chatterjee, K.; Caspell-Garcia, C.; Lafontant, D.-E.; Noyce, A.; Siderowf, A.; Tanner, C.; Brown, E.; Tropea, T. F.; Mollenhauer, B.; Alcalay, R. N.; Poston, K.; Marek, K.; Simuni, T.

2026-04-20 neurology 10.64898/2026.04.15.26350768 medRxiv
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BackgroundPhenoconversion to Parkinsons disease (PD) or dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) currently relies on established clinical diagnostic criteria. Availability of in vivo biomarkers--CSF -synuclein seed amplification assay (CSFaSynSAA) and dopamine transporter (DAT) imaging--offer the opportunity to investigate congruency between clinical phenoconversion and biologically defined disease. MethodsWe analyzed Parkinso[n]s Progression Markers Initiative participants who phenoconverted to PD, DLB, multiple system atrophy (MSA), Alzheimers disease (AD) or other dementias from prodromal and non-manifesting genetic carrier (NMC) groups and controls. Site investigators determined phenoconversion based on established diagnostic criteria. All phenoconverters with [&ge;]1 annual follow-up visit, with available biomarkers and persistent clinically defined diagnosis at last observation were included. Neuronal alpha-Synuclein Disease Integrated Staging System (NSD-ISS) staging was applied. ResultsAmong 121 phenoconverters, 103 had evaluable CSFaSynSAA and DAT data and were included in analysis: 92 PD, 7 DLB, 2 MSA, 2 AD/other dementias. Phenoconversion annual rates varied widely across groups: iRBD 7.9%, hyposmia 4.2%, GBA1 0.3%, LRRK2 1.3%, LRRK2+GBA1 0.9%, and controls 0.5%. Median time from baseline to phenoconversion ranged from 13-14 months in iRBD and hyposmia to 36-85 months in NMCs. The expected biomarker profile (CSFaSynSAA+/DAT+) for clinically-diagnosed synucleinopathy occurred in 74 (71.8%) participants. Biological alignment (CSFaSynSAA+/DAT+) was present in 87% hyposmics and 72% iRBD phenoconverters. CSFaSynSAA negativity was high among LRRK2 phenoconverters (67%), who also were more likely to have a preserved sense of smell (83%). Phenoconversion occurred later than onset of functional impairment: 15/47 (31.9%) iRBDs and 7/38 (18.4%) hyposmics were already NSD-ISS stage [&ge;]4 at time of phenoconversion. ConclusionsClinical phenoconversion did not necessarily align with biological evidence of synucleinopathy or dopaminergic loss and can be delayed compared to onset of meaningful functional impairment. Longitudinal follow up on converters without biological evidence of PD is required to confirm conversion diagnosis and evaluate for a later occurrence of biomarker positivity.

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Post-Discharge Anti-Seizure Medication Use Improves Post-Stroke Survival: An Emulated Target Trial in Older Adults

Sankaranarayanan, M.; Donahue, M. A.; Brooks, J. D.; Sun, S.; Newhouse, J. P.; Blacker, D.; Haneuse, S.; Hernandez-Diaz, S.; Moura, L. M. V. R.

2026-04-20 neurology 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351149 medRxiv
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ObjectiveLevetiracetam is commonly prescribed for seizure prophylaxis after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and often continued beyond discharge. While its short-term effectiveness for preventing post-stroke seizures is established, it is unclear whether prolonged use improves survival, particularly in older adults. We estimated the effect of continued levetiracetam use on 90-day mortality among Medicare beneficiaries after AIS. MethodsUsing Traditional Medicare claims data (2008-2021), we identified beneficiaries aged [&ge;]66 years hospitalized for AIS who initiated outpatient levetiracetam within 90 days of discharge. After one month of continued post-stroke use of levetiracetam (start of follow-up), we compared 90-day mortality between patients with a new levetiracetam dispensation within a 14-day grace period post-follow up and those without one. We performed cloning, censoring and weighting to address immortal time bias and estimated standardized mortality risks, risk differences, and 95% confidence intervals (CI). ResultsAmong 3,212 eligible beneficiaries, 1,779 (55.4%) received a new levetiracetam dispensation within the 14-day grace period. Median age was 76 years (IQR 70-83); 57.8% were female. After adjustment for demographics, hospitalization characteristics, timing of initiation, and comorbidities, continued use was associated with lower 90-day mortality than discontinuation (53 vs 62 deaths per 1,000; risk difference -9 per 1,000; 95% CI: (-12,-5)). The reduction was observed primarily among patients aged [&ge;]75 years. SignificanceAmong older Medicare beneficiaries who initiated levetiracetam after AIS, continued outpatient use was associated with modestly lower 90-day mortality, particularly in those aged [&ge;]75 years. These findings suggest potential benefits of levetiracetam continuation beyond the immediate post-stroke period.

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Assessing medication-related burden and medication adherence among older patients from Central Nepal: A machine learning approach

Giri, R.; Agrawal, R.; Lamichhane, S. R.; Barma, S.; Mahatara, R.

2026-04-23 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351447 medRxiv
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We are pleased to submit our Original article entitled "Assessing medication-related burden and medication adherence among older patients from Central Nepal: A machine learning approach" for consideration in your esteemed journal. In this paper, we assessed medication burden using validated Living with medicines Questionnaire (LMQ-3) and medication adherence using Adherence to Medication refills (ARMS) Scale. In this paper we analysed our result through machine learning approach in spite of traditional statistical approach to identify the complex factors influencing both. Six ML architectures (Ordinary Least Square, LightGBM, Random Forest, XGBoost, SVM, and Penalized linear regression) were employed to predict ARMS and LMQ scores using various socio-demographic, clinical and medication-related predictive features. Model explainability was provided through SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations). Our study identified the moderate medication burden with moderate non-adherence among older adults. Requiring assistance for medication and polypharmacy were the strongest drivers for the medication burden and non-adherence. The high predictive accuracy by ML suggests the appropriate clinical intervention like deprescribing to cope with the high prevalent medication burden and non-adherence among older adults in Nepal.

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Group A Streptococcus Molecular Point of Care testing in a Paediatric Emergency Department

Mills, E. A.; Bingham, R.; Nijman, R. G.; Sriskandan, S.

2026-04-22 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351279 medRxiv
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BackgroundAn upsurge in Streptococcus pyogenes infections 2022-2023 highlighted potential benefits of point-of-care tests (POCT) to support clinical pathways, prevent outbreaks, and optimise antibiotic use. ObjectivesWe conducted a pilot research study in a west London paediatric emergency department (ED) to determine whether a molecular POCT had potential to alter management in children who were also having a conventional throat swab taken for culture. MethodsChildren <16 years presenting to ED who had a throat swab requested by a clinician were invited to have a second swab taken for research purposes only. Clinical management was unaffected by the research swab result, which was processed using a molecular POCT that was not approved for use in the host NHS Trust. ResultsPrevalence of streptococcal infection was low during the study (May 2023-June 2025); swab positivity in symptomatic children was 12.8% (6/47). Overall, 38/49 (77.6%) participants who had throat swabs received antibiotics. Of those children recommended to receive antibiotics, 29/38 (76.3%) had a negative POCT. Mean time to reporting of positive throat swab culture results was 3.67 days (range 3-5 days) leading to occasional delay in treatment, although POCT identified positive results within minutes. ConclusionAntibiotic use was frequent and could be avoided or stopped by use of a rule out POCT in over three-quarters of children in the ED, if suspicion of S. pyogenes is the main driver for prescribing. POCT were easy to process and produced immediate results compared with culture, in theory enabling timely decision-making and avoiding treatment delay.

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Design and preliminary safety validation of a hybrid deterministic-AI triage system for multilingual primary healthcare: a WhatsApp-based vignette study in South Africa

Nkosi-Mjadu, B. E.

2026-04-22 health informatics 10.64898/2026.04.21.26349781 medRxiv
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BackgroundSouth Africas public healthcare system serves most of the population through approximately 3,900 primary healthcare clinics characterised by long waiting times and high volumes of repeat-prescription visits. No published pre-arrival digital triage system operates across all 11 official South African languages while aligning with the South African Triage Scale (SATS). This paper reports the design and preliminary safety validation of BIZUSIZO, a hybrid deterministic-AI WhatsApp triage system. MethodsBIZUSIZO delivers SATS-aligned triage via WhatsApp, combining AI-assisted free-text classification (Claude Haiku 4.5) with a Deterministic Clinical Safety Layer (DCSL) that overrides AI output for 53 clinical discriminator categories (14 RED, 19 ORANGE, 20 YELLOW) coded in all 11 official languages and independent of AI availability. A five-domain risk factor assessment can only upgrade triage level. One hundred and twenty clinical vignettes in patient language (English, isiZulu, isiXhosa, Afrikaans; 30 per language) were scored against a developer-assigned gold standard with independent blinded nurse review. A 121-vignette multilingual DCSL safety consistency check across all 11 languages and a 220-call post-hoc framing sensitivity evaluation (110 paired vignettes) were also conducted. ResultsUnder-triage was 3.3% (4/120; 95% CI: 0.9%-8.3%) with no RED under-triage; exact concordance was 80.0% (96/120) and quadratic weighted kappa 0.891 (95% CI: 0.827-0.932). One two-level under-triage was observed on a non-RED presentation (V072, isiXhosa burns vignette, ORANGEGREEN); one two-level over-triage was observed (V054, isiZulu deep laceration, YELLOWRED). In the framing sensitivity evaluation, AI-only classification achieved 50.9% RED invariance under adversarial framing; full-pipeline classification achieved 95.0% in four validated languages, with the DCSL rescuing 18 of 23 AI drift cases. ConclusionsA hybrid deterministic-AI triage system with DCSL-based emergency detection achieved zero RED under-triage and consistent RED detection across all 11 official languages. The 16.7% over-triage rate falls within published South African SATS ranges (13.1-49%). A single two-level under-triage event was observed on an isiXhosa burns vignette (ORANGEGREEN) and is discussed in Limitations. Findings are preliminary; prospective validation against independent nurse triage is the necessary next step.

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Risk Factors for Antimicrobial Resistance in Cancer Patients and Cancer Survivors: An Electronic Health Record Study

Hu, F.; Wei, J.; Muller-Pebody, B.; Hope, R.; Brown, C.; Carreira, H.; Demirjian, A.; Walker, A. S.; Eyre, D. W.

2026-04-25 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351097 medRxiv
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Objectives: To identifiy risk factors for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in seven pathogen-antimicrobial combinations in patients with cancer and cancer survivors. Methods: Using data from patients with recent or past cancer diagnostic codes in Oxfordshire, UK, we examined associations between 22 potential risk-factors and AMR in blood culture isolates, collected between 1-April-2015 and 31-March-2025. Results: Among 5,975 bacteraemias in 4,365 adults, we analysed 3,141 (52.6%) due to Enterobacterales and 620 (10.4%) due to Enterococcus faecalis/faecium in 2,752 patients. Fourteen risk-factors for antimicrobial-resistant bacteraemia were identified, varying across pathogen-antimicrobial combinations. Compared with no previous antimicrobial susceptibility test result, prior resistance to the same antibiotic in any culture in the last year was strongly associated with AMR across all pathogen-antimicrobial combinations (all p<=0.001). Prior antibiotic exposure and younger age were also positively associated with AMR in four and five combinations, respectively. Cancer type showed modest effects; lymphoid/haematopoietic malignancies were associated with higher odds (vs colorectal cancer) of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole-resistant Enterobacterales (aOR=2.07 95%CI 1.40-3.06) and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus bacteraemia (aOR=6.68, 1.21-36.91). Conclusions: Previous resistance was the greatest risk factor for bacteraemia with AMR in cancer patients and survivors, with prior antibiotic exposure and age also contributing. Lymphoid/haematopoietic malignancies increased risk of resistance to specific antimicrobials. Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, bacteraemia, cancer, risk factors

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Integrating α-Synuclein Seeding Activity (SAA) into routine practice: insights from the multicenter ALZAN Cohort

Jourdan, O.; Duchiron, M.; Torrent, J.; Turpinat, C.; Mondesert, E.; Busto, G.; Morchikh, M.; Dornadic, M.; Delaby, C.; Hirtz, C.; Thizy, L.; Barnier-Figue, G.; Perrein, F.; Jurici, S.; Gabelle, A.; Bennys, K.; Lehmann, S.

2026-04-23 neurology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351389 medRxiv
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Objectives: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of the -synuclein seed amplification assay (SAA) and characterize the impact of -synuclein co-pathology on cognitive and biological profiles in routine clinical practice. Methods: We included 398 patients from the prospective multicenter ALZAN cohort recruited from memory clinics in Montpellier, Nimes, and Perpignan. All participants underwent CSF and blood sampling with measurement of CSF biomarkers (A{beta}42/40, tau, ptau181) and plasma biomarkers (A{beta}42/40, ptau181, ptau217, GFAP, NfL). Cognitive assessment was performed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Clinical diagnoses were independently confirmed by two senior neurologists. Syn status was determined by SAA (RT-QuIC). Results: Of 398 patients, 19 out of 20 patients with Lewy body dementia (LBD) (95.0%) and 32 out of 203 patients with AD (15.8%) were SAA+. SAA-positivity presented a sensitivity of 95% and a specificity of 93.5% for distinguishing LBD from patients without LBD or AD. In the entire cohort, SAA+ patients showed lower MMSE scores (p<0.01), lower CSF A{beta}42/40 ratio (p<0.01), and elevated plasma GFAP (p<0.05). Within the AD group, no significant differences in CSF or blood biomarkers were observed between SAA+ and SAA- patients. Within the AD subgroup, no significant differences in CSF or blood biomarkers were observed between SAA+ and SAA- patients, except for a lower CSF A{beta}42/40 ratio in SAA+ patients (p<0.01). Interpretation: SAA demonstrates good diagnostic capabilities for detecting LBD and confirms notable Syn co-pathology in AD. This study highlights the limitations of routine CSF and emerging blood biomarkers in capturing Syn pathology and the value of integrating SAA into routine neurodegenerative disease assessment.

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Linguistic Validation of the Rett Syndrome Behavior Questionnaire Spanish Translation: a Two-Stage Caregiver Study Across Latin America

Polo Sanchez, M.; Lesmes, A. C.; Muni, N.; Vigneault, F.; Novak, R.

2026-04-23 neurology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26349544 medRxiv
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Background: Rett Syndrome (RTT) is a severe neurodevelopmental disorder affecting approximately 1 in 10,000 live female births worldwide. The Rett Syndrome Behaviour Questionnaire (RSBQ), remains one of the most widely used standardized behavioral assessment tools for RTT. However, the RSBQ was originally validated only in British English, limiting its applicability for Spanish-speaking caregivers and clinical centers across Latin America and Spain. Objective: The primary aim of this study was to develop and validate the comprehension of the Spanish translation of the RSBQ to ensure cultural and linguistic equivalence, enhance data reliability, and facilitate earlier, more accurate clinical assessments among Spanish-speaking RTT populations. Methods: Surveys were administered in two phases to Spanish-speaking caregivers between November 2023 and September 2025. Phase I consisted of 12 guided survey administrations with participants being able to ask clarifying questions and offer linguistic modifications of RSBQ questions. Phase II consisted of independent online administration of the refined Spanish RSBQ and a retest at least 7 days later. Participants were recruited through direct outreach and supported virtually during questionnaire completion. Results: Following data cleaning and quality control, a total of 51 caregivers successfully completed both surveys. The Spanish RSBQ demonstrated high caregiver comprehension and strong engagement across multiple Latin American countries, including Argentina, Mexico, and Peru. Responses were highly correlated between test and retest timepoints, and no question showed biased response distributions. A slight effect of response interval on test-retest correlation was observed, potentially indicating the impact of natural disease progression confounding retest evaluation for long (>80 day) intervals; however this effect did not impact the overall linguistic validation results as analysis of only <21 day test-retest responders confirmed the findings. Conclusions: This linguistic validation study represents the first formal step toward the clinical validation of the Spanish RSBQ, enabling broader inclusion of Spanish-speaking populations in RTT research. The collaborative, bilingual data collection strategy proved both feasible and effective, paving the way for multinational trials and expanding therapeutic accessibility through localized, patient-centered innovation.

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A Systems Pharmacology Model of Ageing Identifies Optimal Combination Therapies With Secondary Benefits on Weight Loss and Metabolic Health

Goryanin, I.; Damms, B.; Goryanin, I.

2026-04-23 pharmacology and therapeutics 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351392 medRxiv
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Background: Ageing is a systems level biological process underlying the onset and progression of multiple chronic disorders. Rather than arising from a single pathway, age related decline reflects interacting disturbances in metabolic regulation, inflammation, nutrient sensing, cellular stress responses, and tissue repair. Although GLP1 receptor agonists, sodium glucose cotransporter2 inhibitors, metformin, and rapamycin are usually evaluated against disease-specific endpoints. Objective: To develop an SBML compliant quantitative systems pharmacology model in which ageing is the primary pharmacological endpoint and to evaluate which combination therapy provides the greatest benefit for both metabolic and ageing related outcomes. Methods: We developed model comprising four layers: a metabolic/pharmacodynamic layer describing weight loss, HbA1c reduction, and nausea with tolerance; a drug layer capturing class-specific effects of GLP1 agonists, sodium glucose cotransporter2 inhibitors, metformin, and rapamycin; an ageing layer representing damage accumulation, repair capacity, frailty, and biological age gap; and a biomarker layer generating trajectories and estimated glucose disposal rate. Calibration was staged across semaglutide clinical endpoints. Bayesian hierarchical meta analysis, global sensitivity analysis, and practical identifiability analysis were used to assess robustness and interpretability. Results: The model reproduced semaglutide efficacy and tolerability dynamics and supported distinct drug-class profiles across metabolic and ageing axes. Rapamycin showed minimal glycaemic effect but emerged as a dominant driver of repair related ageing outcomes. Combination simulations predicted two distinct optima: one favouring metabolic improvement and one favouring ageing related benefit. Conclusion: The model supports the view that metabolic and ageing optimization are mechanistically distinct objectives and that weight loss and glycaemic improvement alone may be insufficient surrogates for health span benefit.

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Identifying clinician perceived priorities for a real-time wearable system for in-hospital monitoring: findings and evolutions following the COVID-19 pandemic

Vollam, S.; Roman, C.; King, E.; Tarassenko, L.

2026-04-24 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.04.21.26350610 medRxiv
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A Wearable Monitoring System (WMS), comprising a chest patch, wrist-worn pulse oximeter, and arm-worn blood pressure device, was developed in preparation for a pilot Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) on a UK surgical ward. The system was designed to support continuous physiological monitoring and early detection of deterioration. An initial prototype user interface was developed by the research team based on prior clinical experience and engineering knowledge. To ensure suitability for clinical practice, iterative user-centred refinement was undertaken through a series of clinician focus groups and wearability assessments. Six focus groups were conducted between November 2019 and May 2021 involving multidisciplinary healthcare professionals. Feedback from these sessions informed successive interface and system modifications. System development spanned the COVID-19 pandemic, during which the WMS was rapidly adapted and deployed to support clinical care on isolation wards. Feedback obtained during this period was incorporated into later versions of the system and provided a unique opportunity to examine changes in clinician priorities under pandemic conditions. Clinicians consistently prioritised alert visibility, alarm fatigue mitigation, parameter flexibility, and centralised monitoring. Notably, preferences regarding alert modality and access mechanisms evolved over time: early enthusiasm for mobile or smartphone-type devices shifted towards a preference for fixed, ward-based displays and audible alerts at the nurses station following pandemic deployment. Building on previous wearability testing in healthy volunteers, wearability testing using a validated questionnaire was completed by 169 patient participants during the RCT. The chest patch and pulse oximeter demonstrated high tolerability, whereas the blood pressure cuff showed poor wearability and was removed from the final system. These findings demonstrate the importance of iterative, clinician-led design for wearable WMS and highlight how extreme clinical contexts such as the COVID-19 pandemic can significantly reshape perceived requirements for safety-critical monitoring technologies.

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Do Amyloid Trajectories Reach a Physiologic Ceiling? Evidence from Iterative Approximation and Simulation

Gantenberg, J. R.; La Joie, R.; Heston, M. B.; Ackley, S. F.

2026-04-21 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.14.26350359 medRxiv
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Qualitative models of Alzheimers pathology often posit that amyloid accumulation follows a sigmoid curve, indicating that the rate of deposition wanes over time. Longitudinal PET data now allow us to investigate amyloid accumulation trajectories with greater detail and over longer follow-up periods. We combine inferences from simulated amyloid trajectories, empirical PET data from the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), and the sampled iterative local approximation algorithm (SILA) to assess whether amyloid accumulation reaches a physiologic ceiling. We find that SILA reliably detects a ceiling, when present, across a range of simulated scenarios that impose a sigmoid shape. When fit to empirical data from ADNI, however, SILA does not appear to indicate the presence of a ceiling. Thus, we conclude that amyloid trajectories may not reach a physiologic ceiling during the stages of Alzheimers disease typically observed while patients remain under follow-up in cohort studies. Fits using SILA indicate that illustrative models of biomarker cascades, while useful tools for conceptualizing and interrogating pathologic processes, may not represent the shapes of amyloid trajectories accurately. Summary for General PublicAmyloid, a protein implicated in Alzheimers disease, is thought to reach a plateau in the brain, but methods that estimate how amyloid changes over time suggest it grows unabated. Gantenberg et al. use one such method and simulations to argue that amyloid does not reach a plateau during the typical course of Alzheimers.